Corona, grein frá Eivind Jacobsen

Nú hava mynduleikarnir avgjørt at tey tiltøk sum eru galdandi, skulu galda til páskar. Og sjálvandi eiga vit øll at rætta okkum eftir vegleiðingum hjá mynduleikunum.

Samfelagið verður sostatt í undantaksstøðu í 4 vikur. Hetta er tíðin vit hava til at leggja til rættis og skipa okkum frameftir.

Vit vita um Corona smittuna, at hon uppá 1 mána fer frá ongum tilburði til so nógvar tilburðir, at heilsuverkið hoknar undan. Vit vita eisini at Corona smittan er allastaðini. Tí kunnu vit longu nú siga vit vissu, at tað ikki ber til at slaka uppá galdandi tiltøk uttan at vit uppá uml. 1 mána enda í somu støðu aftur.

Tí vita vit eisini at mátin vit hava valt at takla Corona ger, at galdandi tiltøk verða galdandi líka til vit fáa eina vaccinu. Tí verða tiltøkini galdandi restina av árinum og helst eisini nakrar mánar í komandi ári.

Fíggjarligu avleiðingarnar
Vit hava í dag hoyrt stjóran í Als greiða frá at hann roknar við umleið 2.000 arbeiðsleysum hesa vikuna. Og hesi koma øll úr privatu vinnuni. Flestu av hesum fólkum fara tí at fáa eina trivaliga lønarlækking. Avleiðingin fyri tey fólk, sum verða rakt er sjálvandi stór.

Somuleiðis verður avleiðingin fyri kommunu og landskassar stór.

Men stórsta avleiðingin verður fyri privatar fyritøkur, tí tær flestu fara at missa trivaligan part av søluni.

Føroyar missa eisini nógvar pengar í valutainntøku, tí ferðafólk verða neyvan nógv í ár. Herundir missa nógv sum hava parttíðarstarv trivaligan part av eykainntøku sínari.

Sum støðan er í løtuni, so skulu vit aftur til 1992 fyri at síggja nakað sum minnur um hetta. Og tað eru bara Ólavur Christiansen og Sverri Hansen, sum minnast og vita hvussu tað var tá. Men ongin orsøk er at rokna við at teir sum nú skulu ráðgeva í pengamálum spyrja hesar báðar um nakað sum helst.

Sostatt noyðast Bárður, Jørgen og Jenis at royna sum frægast, uttan aðra ráðgeving teir stóla uppá. Men teir eru politikarar og hava ikki ráð at hugsa langt. Havandi í huga valið 1994, so hava teir enntá góða orsøk at hugsa stutt.

Og fyri at gera tað enn truplari, so er Corona virus orsøkin til støðuna.

Vit skulu tí kríggast á tveimum hermótum.
Vit hava valt at kríggjast ímóti Corona og at lána pengar til at vaccinera okkum móti búskaparligari afturgongd.

Um vit taka tað búskaparliga fyrst. Vit vita frá royndum, bæði í 1992-95 og frá 2010-2012 at palliba og bankar lukka kassan. Nógv umrøddi flatskatturin sum byrjaði í 2012 viðførdi, at fólk brúktu tær krónur tey spardu í skatti at niðurgjalda skuld, vistu bankafólk at fortelja mær tá. Vit vita at í 1992 áttu sera fá fólk nakrar pengar. Men tey brúktu onki. Vit vita at nýtslan minkaði væl meira enn lønarminkingin tilsegði. Vit vita, at úrslit landskassans frá 2008 fór frá +145 mió. til minus 688 mió, uppá 2 ár.

Vit hava við donskum pengum veitt statsgaranti fyri rakstarlánum. Hesi lán vita vit av royndum verða givin til stórar fyritøkur so sum Smyril Line, Atlantic Airways og Gist og Vist. Men so eru pengarnir næstan brúktir. Náttúrliga er tað soleiðis at tær fyritøkur, sum ikki hava nøktandi rakstur verða koyrdar konkurs og starvsfólkini missa arbeiði. Vit vita eisini av royndum at fyritøkur eru alt ov seinar at siga fólki úr starvi og tí eru relativt færri uppsagnir fyrstu tíðina og relativt fleiri seinni. Samstundis, er eisini galdandi at bankar royna at hjálpa fyrst, men síðan hugsa teir um seg sjálvan og koyra fyritøkur konkurs.

Útsett MVG vita vit eisini endar í bankanum og ikki hjá kreditorum annars. Soleiðis er tað altíð. Ein trivaligur partur av útsettum MVG verður sjálvandi mistur, men tað veit landsstýri sjálvandi.

Spurningurin er so, hvussu vit fáa samfelagshjólini at mala aftur. Tað venda vit aftur til seinast í hesari grein. Nú fara vit til Corona.

Corona vitjar og tølini vaksa spakuliga. Vit hava valt at tálma gongdini, tí vit ynskja at passa talið av sjúklingum til samlaða kapasitetin á sjúkrahúsunum. Tað er sjálvandi nakað vit øll eru samd um. Men tað er eisini ein spurningur um at velja rætta strategi, soleiðis at tað í longdini verður soleiðis.

Vit hava kinesisk og italiensk hagtøl og vita tí rímuliga nógv um Corona. Vit áttu heldur at brúkt tíð uppá tað heldur enn at diskutera 2 variantar av Corona, har vit eiga at ganga út frá at tann seinni vinnur á hinum fyrra, soleiðis at tað bara verður ein og tað er tí bara ein púra vanlig mutatión, sum tó hevur áhuga fyri eftirtíðina.

Vit vita hvønn kapasitet vit hava. Vit vita hvør er í vandabólki. Faktis vita vit so væl hvør er í vandabólki, at sjúkrahúsverkið kann seta navn á tey, um journalirnar annars eru til at leita í.

Vit vita at 99% av teimum sum doyggja hava kroniskar sjúkur, sum eru staðfestar áðrenn tey fingu Corona virus og doyðu. 48% høvdu entá 3 kroniskar sjúkur. Vit vita at ongin undir 30 er deyður í Italia. Vit vita at næstan øll sum sum doyggja eru meira enn 70 ár. Vit vita faktis, at Corona er ófarligt fyri tey allar flestu. Vit vita tí sera væl, hvør av okkum als ikki má gerast sjúkur.

Vit vita at øll smitta øll og tí kunnu tey sum als ongan skaða fáa av Corona smitta onkran sum doyr av Corona.

Vit vita, at nøkur doyggja av Corona sjávt um tey fáa læknahjálp. Flest øll fáa ongan skaða. Eftir er so tann lítli bólkurin, sum doyr uttan læknahjálp, men yvirliva við læknahjálp.

Kunsturin at velja eina strategi, soleiðis at so fá sum møguligt doyggja er ikki so einfaldur.

Okkara strategi er at seinka gongdini, soleiðis at sjúkrahúsini hava kapasitet til at taka sær av teimum sum tørva læknahjálp. Hendan strategi ger, at Corona kemur runt til okkum øll, tó at tað tekur tíð. Hetta ger so at Corona fer at ferðast runt okkara millum í sera langa tíð. Líka til vit finna eina vaksinu. Vit kunnu eisini siga við stórari vissu at valdi hátturin ger, at ellisheim, sjúkrahús og onnur í vandabólki fáa vitjan av Corona. Tað er bara spurningur um tíð.

Vit hava tí valt eina strategi, sum verður permanent líka til vit hava vaccinera øll i vandabólki. Okkara strategi verður tí tann sama restina av árinum.

10-20 smittaði pr. dag ger, at tað tekur nógv ár til øll ella 60%, sum sigst verða tað sum krevst fyri at forða at smittan breiður seg, eru smittaði. Tað ger eisini, at øll í vandabólki eru í vanda fyri at doyggja líka til vit finna eina vaksinu.

Vit vita eisini at Corona smittar sum forkølilsi. Vit vita at tað tekur í miðal 5,1 dag (97% eru smittað aftaná 11 dagar) frá tí tú ert smittaður til tú fært sjúkutekin. Vit eiga at rokna við at vit smitta onnur, áðrenn vit sjálvi merkja sjúkutekin. Vit vita eisini at tað í miðal ganga 4 dagar frá tí fólk fáa symptomir til tey doyggja.

Vit vita at slíkt virus smittar sera skjótt og at tað tekur um ikki dagar, so í mesta lagið 1-2 vikur at smitta stóran part av øllum í Føroyum. Vit eru ultramobil og hittast í so nógvum ymiskum sambondum og øll krossa hvønn annan. Vit kunnu ikki rokna við og planleggja eftir at nøkur vaccina er tøk fyrr enn næsta ár, tó at onkur heldur at seinast í árinum er eitt gott boð.

Somuleiðis vita vit, at orsøkin til at slíkar sjúkur smitta minni á sumri í øðrum londum ikki er tí at tað er heitari, men tí at tá ganga fólk meira úti og tí er avstandurin millum fólk longri. Hetta er í minni mun galdandi hjá okkum enn hjá øðrum.

Vit hava so mikið nógv fólk sum hava staðfest Corona at vit eiga at rokna við, eins og landslæknin segði í KVF í dag, at tølini fara at vaksa. Somuleiðis er framvegis so mikið nógvur aktivitetur at roknast má við at smittan er allastaðni og tað verður hon restina av árinum.

Tað viðførur so eisini, at tá vit geva leyst og næstan alt verður sum fyrr, so fær Corona virusin aftur bein at ganga á. Og so brúkar hon 2-3 vikur at koma fyri seg og so eru vit aftur í somu støðu. Sama verður galdandi í øðrum londum og so skulu vit taka støðu til um vit skulu gera tað sama sum nú enn einaferð.

Trupulleikin við at geva leyst og síðan noyðast at gera tað sama enn einaferð, ella bara at gera tað vit nú gera í laga tíð er, at undirtøkan fyri tiltøkunum minkar og minkar. Og tá gevast vit við at fylgja tilráðingunum hjá mynduleikunum. Havandi í huga at færri enn 5% av fólkinum eru í vandabólki eru tað 95% sum onga orsøk hava at fylgja vegleiðingum.

Um tað hendur, at vit ikki fylgja hesum tilráðingum, so fer talið av teimum, sum doyggja at vaksa. Tey í vandabólki verða tá fullkomuliga verjuleys.

Granskarar sum fáast við atferð hjá fólki vóru so mikið vísir í hesum at teir ráddu til at bíða longst møguligt við at seta tiltøk í verk, tí at royndir vísa, at fólk gevast at lurta eftir mynduleikunum.

Alternativið til at búra 45.000 fólk inni er at búra tey 1100, sum landslæknin sigur verða í vandabólki inni. Kanska tey eru nakað fleiri alt eftir hvussu vit vilja tryggja okkum at ongin er gloydur.

Niðurstøða
Kostnaðurin av at halda áfram við verðandi tiltøkum, restina av árinum, vil fólki ikki gjalda. Tað sóu vit greitt tá Jóhan Dahl luftaði tankanum um at hann og hini sum tjena væl kanska kundu farið niður í løn. Vit minnast eisini tá Gerhard Lognberg á løgtingi helt at løgtingsmenn áttu at byrja við sær sjálvum.

Arbeiðsloysi nækrast 10% hesa vikuna! Tey hava øll munandi færri pengar.

Halda tiltøkini áfram so lukkar palliba kassan og hann verður stongdur í áravís. Og so er onki at gera. Arbeiðsloysi á 20% nærliggjandi og ikki fjært. Tað kann saktans gerast 1992 umaftur og til tey ungu sum ikki minnast tað, skal sigast, at tað skal upplivast fyri at ein skal skilja tað.

Fíggjarstøðan hjá landskassanum viðførur at hesaferð verða almennar uppsagnir i lutfallinum 1 til 2 í mun til tær í privatu vinnuni. Tilsamans tosa vit um 2-4.000 uppsagnir. Tey fyrstu 2.000 hava longu fingið uppsøgn.

Vit noyðast…
Flatskatturin kann avtakast, tí tey sum tjena nógv fara at goyma pengarnar og tað hevur samfelagið ikki ráð til.

Verðandi strategi viðvíkjandi Corona má broytast, soleiðis at tey í vandabólki sita heima komandi árið, meðan hini fara aftur til arbeiðis. Somuleiðis má strangt eftirlit verða við teimum sum arbeiða og umgangast fólk í vandabólki.

Men sjálvandi eru tað landsins mynduleikar sum avgerða, hvat og hvussu. Og sjálvandi eiga vit at lurta og rætta okkum eftir teimum. Men av ti at fólki, sum tíðin gongur lurtar minni og minni, noyðast mynduleikarnir at taka hædd fyri tí.

Verðandi strategi tryggjar ikki tey í vandabólki. Verðandi strategi útsetur Corona vitjanina hjá teimum í vandabólki. Men tey fáa vitjan. Hon verður bara nakað seinka. Vit hava jú dupult so nógv smittað sum nakað annað land. Ongastaðni er smittan farin so víða sum hjá okkum. Smittan kom úr øðrum londum og tí verða tey yngru fyrst smitta. Tey gomlu og partur av teimum í vandabólki eru lítið mobil. Men at enda draga starvsfólk smittuna til tey sum ikki tola Corona. Talið av deyðum í Italia skal býtast við 1200. Tí skal ansast væl eftir um vit ikki skulu hava flest deyð pr. íbúgva í summar.

Tí krevst at vilji er til at ivast i læknafagligu metingini, sum er basera uppá kapasitetin á sjúkrahúsinum og ikki fægst møgulig deyð í longdini. Somueiðis er læknafagliga metingin basera uppá at vit lurta og fylgja tí sum mynduleikin ásetur, tó at tað er ivasamt um vit gera tað í longdini.

Hetta skal skiljast sum mín meining um hvat er neyðugt at taka við í metingum.

Mynduleikar meta sjálvandi eftir bestu sannføring og við ábyrgd.

Tað er sjálvandi heilt nakað annað enn at eg gera mær mína meining uttan ábyrgd

Eivind Jacobsen, tann 24.03.2020

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